摘要：为计算南水北调东线工程优势调水频率，选用国内外常用的二维p—Ⅲ分布的计算方法进行南水北调年径流丰枯遭遇分析，并与传统的基于频率的分析方法结果做了比较。研究表明，qin方法、moran方法、fgm方法在其适用范围内对二维p—Ⅲ分布计算结果较好，并提供了各种二维p—Ⅲ分布计算方法应用范围的建议。优势调水频率计算结果显示，长江淮河、长江黄河的丰枯同步频率均小于丰枯异步频率，年尺度的优势调水频率不高于40%。三峡建成后，改变了长江中下游的年径流的年内分配，多数月份更有利于调水。为此，要提高南水北调东线工程的利用价值，必须充分考虑调蓄工程的建设，配以相应的运行调度方式，相机从长江引水。

关键词：南水北调东线工程；p—Ⅲ分布；丰枯遭遇分析；优势调水频率

中图分类号：tv68；tv213 文献标识码：a 文章编号：1672-1683（2008）01-0100-03

advantaged frequency analysis of the eastern route of the south-to-north water transfer project

dai chang-jun1,guan guang-ming1,sun hao2,li han-qin1

(1.changjiang institute of survey,planning,design and research,changjiang water resources commission,wuhan 430010,china;2.agriculture development center,jiangsu water resources department,nanjing 210098,china)

abstract:to evaluate the potential of water transfer of the eastern route of the south-to-north water transfer project,several methods of calculating joint probability for bivariate p—Ⅲ distribution were applied to analyze plentiful or scanty runoff e